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A significant initiative with commercial real estate effects was passed on last week’s ballot in Los Angeles. Expected to take effect this month, the measure changes, almost overnight, the labor and affordable housing requirements for developers building in the city, affecting multifamily projects with ten or more units, as well as other projects.
Measure JJJ, also known as the Build Better L.A. initiative, was sent to the voters in the general election of Nov. 8. In Los Angeles City, JJJ passed with 64% of the vote at over 461,000 votes and according to JDSupra law blog, takes effect within ten days of the certification of vote results, or, on November 19, 2016.
Affecting projects that ask for a zoning exemption, a plan amendment, a height change or a authorization of residential use of land where previously not permitted, JJJ requires developers of projects with ten residential units or above to provide a percentage of affordable housing units on-site. Depending on the exemption sought, the percentage will fall between 5% and 40% affordable units.
Some alternatives to compliance are available. Per JDSupra:
[T]he Initiative offers alternatives to compliance, including providing affordable housing units off-site, acquisition of “at-risk” affordable housing properties and converting the units into non-profit or other similar type of housing, or payment of an in‑lieu fee into the City’s new Affordable Housing Trust Fund. The in-lieu fee will be determined by a formula using an “Affordability Gap” multiplier as defined in the Initiative. Additionally, projects that opt to provide off-site housing will be required to provide additional affordable units based on a formula that increases the number of required units based on the distance from the primary project.
Further, the Initiative requires that residential housing projects seeking discretionary approval be constructed by licensed contractors, with good faith effort to ensure that 30% of whom are permanent Los Angeles residents and at least 10% of whom are “transitional workers”—single parents, veterans, on public assistance, or chronically unemployed—whose primary place of residence is within a 5‑mile radius of the project. Projects subject to the Initiative will be required to pay “prevailing wage”—an average of area wages based on a formula created by the state government—to all construction workers on the project.
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)Related articles
The industrial property subcategory 3PL, or third party logistics, is a rapidly expanding market across the US. Steady growth in e-commerce has created a growing dependency upon these warehousing and logistics properties thanks to their effect of reducing delivery time on goods shipped to customers. With e-commerce sales worldwide set to pass $2 trillion in 2017 in pursuit of double-digit annual growth, knowledge of the 3PL industry will pay off for the commercial real estate professional patrolling this piece of the national supply chain. What follows in this post are two helpful sources of quick information about the 3PL as it lives and breathes today.
Video: Dynamic 3PL Logistics
If you’re in need of a rapid refresher on the global supply chain and need a helpful glimpse at the shape and vocabulary of 3PL, check out this short video by 3PL provider Dynamic 3PL Logistics. To the point, short, yet packed with illuminating info, this clip will get the point across about 3PL — fast.
Fifty Most Successful 3PLs
While far from a comprehensive or updated list, the article “North America’s 50 Most Successful 3PLs” from SupplyChainBrain.com collects an excellent top-down view of North America’s top 50 3PL operators, including some depth on the operations, local and global. Researchers arriving to this market will find a useful bookmark here.
Retailing industry analyst Kantar Retail this month released an impact study on the US supermarket sector that highlights a new entry from Europe. Lidl, a no-frills grocery chain headquartered in Germany, is in business in 28 countries in Europe, is expected to enter the US market in 2018.
Similar to Aldi, another German supermarket competitor who have long since set up shop in the US, Lidl stores take a low-staff, no-frills approach to supermarket operation, displaying skids of product in aisles, letting customers take product from opened cartons. A lack of specialty areas, preferred by some other supermarket chains, creates store floor plans that are streamlined and configurations that demand less of basic space than does the average US supermarket.
Kantar sees Lidl as opening over 100 stores a year in the US, with a total of 400 up and down the east coast by 2020. The chain’s operating efficiency is touted, as a single, fully mature store could generate $14 million, or , “a lot of volume packed into a 36KSF box”. Other highlights from Kantar:
- Lidl could surpass USD2 billion in volume by the end of its second full year of operations
- By 2023, we believe Lidl could approach USD 9 billion in sales, which is more than what Wegmans does today
- Expect Lidl to have over 400 stores up and down the East Coast by the start of the next decade
East Coast Rollout Locations To Watch
The chain’s US corporate headquarters is announced as being located in Arlington County, VA. European press has put a location of the first wave of Lidl stores as Virginia Beach. Its logistics network has already put down roots with two regional distribution centers, one in Alamance County, NC and Arlington County.Related articles
Funding commercial mortgages with customer deposits is a central purpose for any huge bank. But when a big bank plays fast and loose with its reputation to the degree Wells Fargo has, it creates a special risk to the entire commercial lending ecosystem that should be understood.
Wells Fargo’s recent scandal is the living definition of “fast and loose”. The bank was outed as an identity thief and slapped with a $185 million fine for the fraud of signing up millions of its customers for programs without their knowledge or consent. But that’s a mere traffic ticket compared to what may be coming from market recrimination.
A recent study by consulting firm CG42 spoke to 1,000 of Wells Fargo’s customers and found, unsurprisingly, that people don’t like doing business with a bank they can’t trust. The study identified a potential loss of deposits totaling $99 billion as customers head for the door. From the CG42 study:
Our findings show significant damage has already been inflicted on the bank’s reputation. Over 85% of consumers surveyed are aware of the scandal, and positive perceptions of the brand sunk from 60% before the scandal to 24% post-scandal. More tellingly, negative perceptions of the brand increased from 15% before the scandal to 52% post-scandal. This blow to Wells Fargo’s reputation will hamstring the bank’s ability to retain customers and attract new ones, as our study reveals.
While only 3% of Wells Fargo’s customers report being affected by the scandal, a full 30% claim they are actively exploring alternatives and 14% have already made the decision to switch banks as a result of the scandal. This represents $212B of deposits and $8B of revenues at risk. Our projections indicate Wells Fargo will lose $99B in deposits and $4B in revenues over the next 12-18 months as a direct result of the scandal, dealing a hard blow to the bank’s finances.
Consistent with findings from our past Retail Banking Vulnerability Studies, community and regional banks stand to gain the most from the fallout of the scandal, with a projected $38.7B in gained deposits and $1.6B in gained revenues over the next 12-18 months. Chase and Bank of America will also profit from the fallout, largely due to their national presence which makes them a viable alternative for customers who seek the convenience of a bank with branches across the U.S.
The chain of cause and effect goes like this: $99 billion of deposits walk out the door, depriving Wells of its least expensive capital, leading to higher capital costs for its borrowers financing new commercial mortgages. Add to this the (unknown at press time) potential for angry commercial borrowers currently financed through the bank to re-finance and take their business elsewhere.
Is there a mass exodus of commercial customers through refinance in the cards for Wells Fargo? Some believe not, with one Wall Street analyst referring to Wells’ customer base as “incredibly sticky”, meaning the overhead cost of changing lenders is too steep for customers.
But that perspective may fade as the scandal continues to expand from the retail side and into the commercial side of the bank’s business. Coming to light now are tales of Wells’ shabby treatment of its business customers. In other words, Wells appears to have been just as abusive in the cultural and economic space where commercial financing lives. From Reuters:
Reuters also spoke to a former Wells employee, and a lawyer representing former employees and a former and current Wells customer, who described abusive sales practices with multiple business accounts. Jose Maldonado, a restaurant owner in Southern California who banked with Wells Fargo for 15 years, said he discovered seven accounts after enlisting the help of his accountant. He initially closed extraneous ones, and ultimately moved his remaining business to Bank of America Corp and JPMorgan Chase & Co.
“I don’t like Wells Fargo anymore. I don’t feel comfortable,” Maldonado said in an interview. “In the past, there were sometimes crazy accounts without my permission.”
Langan declined to comment on Maldonado’s accounts.
An ex-Wells Fargo business banker, who declined to be identified, said employees at his former branch were required to sell products to small business customers such as hair-salon owners and carpet cleaners in packages of three – regardless of whether they needed them.
Those typically included accounts for checking, credit card processing and payroll, and were often linked to additional savings accounts, said the former Wells banker. Bankers also tacked on business credit cards and were pressured to call a Wells insurance unit, with the customer present, to push business liability policies.
News of Wells Fargo’s business practices isn’t done doing damage. The question is: will the commercial mortgage finance marketplace hold Wells alone responsible, or will all too-big-to-fail banks be looked at skeptically in the future?
With the expected flight to community banking, and with so many alternative financing options arriving every quarter, it wouldn’t be a surprise.
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)Related articles
With over 4,000 haunted houses and horror attractions running across the United States, chances are there’s one serving your scarea. Ever wonder what goes into site selection for these specialty properties? Plenty of boo diligence.
The holiday’s economic impact is spooktacular: according to the National Retail Federation, Americans spent over $8 billion on Halloween in 2012. October brings not only p-eek foot traffic for haunted attractions, but also a wave of retail pop-ups to sell costumes and party supplies. Chopping center managers know: these seasonal pop-ups can produce a distinct upward pressure on NOI (net op-boo-rating income) for the fourth quarter balance sheet.
And why not? Vacant commercial space screams out for an inexpensive solution, one without capit-owl expenditure. Landlords can cash in on the holiday, but must be careful to not leave themselves exposed on costs for CAM (cauldron area maintenance), especially for properties financed with steep groan-to-value terms or that that depend on high IRR, (interment rate of return). As always, sound business principles should win over witchful thinking.
List of haunted commercial sites
The haunting industry — yes, it’s actually called that — appears to have a nerve center online called Hauntworld.com. There you can find a North American directory of haunted house operations, suitable for a quick dip of real estate market research as we find ourselves in the trick-or-REIT season. Use it to spot an opportunity: maybe you can put some of your vacant invent-eerie to work next year.Related articles
The Federal Reserve Beige Book, the eight-times-yearly published compendium of anecdotal information about current national economic conditions, has once again arrived. This time around, the national story on commercial real estate is about modest growth, improvement and expansion. Based on information collected before October 7 of this year, the Fed states:
Home price appreciation continued at a modest pace in general, and commercial real estate activity and construction improved since the last report. Demand for business and consumer loans increased, aside from some seasonal slowing, and credit quality remained strong or improved. Agricultural conditions were mixed, as low commodity prices pressured farm revenues despite generally strong crop yields. There were signs of stabilization in the oil and natural gas sector, while reports of coal production were mixed.
Commercial real estate leasing activity generally improved, and outlooks were mostly optimistic, although contacts in a few Districts expressed concern about economic uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential elections. Commercial rents were flat to up, and vacancy rates were generally low and/or declined in reporting Districts, except in the Houston metro area where office vacancies increased further. Sales of commercial properties were characterized as robust in the Chicago, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts but softened in the greater Boston area. Commercial construction increased on net, with contacts in the Cleveland and Atlanta Districts reporting increased or high backlogs. Shortages of skilled labor remained a constraint on construction activity in some Districts, such as Cleveland and San Francisco.
Employment expanded at a modest pace over the reporting period. Reports of hiring were strongest in the Richmond, Chicago, St. Louis, and San Francisco Districts. Layoffs in the manufacturing sector were noted in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Richmond Districts. The Dallas District reported that energy-sector layoffs had abated, and manufacturing employment was stable following payroll reductions in recent months. Labor market conditions remained tight across most Districts. While reports of labor shortages varied across skill levels and industries, there were multiple mentions of difficulty hiring in manufacturing, hospitality, health care, truck transportation, and sales. The Richmond, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts noted a lack of construction workers with some contacts noting these shortages were constraining construction activity.
While the color beige may be popularly known as the color people use when they don’t want to use color, this report’s findings do point to our industry’s recent health — and to the green of dollars.Related articles
2,000 years ago on the western coast of Turkey, the ancient Greek city of Teos stood. A Mediterranean port and center for regional commerce, Teos’s two harbors brought people and goods throughout the Anatolian region of modern Turkey. The commerce brought with it law and paperwork, although a great deal of the “paper” twenty centuries ago was actually stone. Teos is today an archaeological goldmine thanks to so many written — or chiseled — words. Discovered this year: a 1.5 meter-long inscribed stone tablet containing a detailed 58-line commercial lease complete with a few disturbing clauses. From the Ars Technica piece on the discovery:
Carved into a 1.5 meter-long marble stele, the document goes into great detail about the property and its amenities. We learn that it’s a tract of land that was given to the Neos, a group of men aged 20-30 associated with the city’s gymnasium. In ancient Greece, a gymnasium wasn’t just a place for exercise and public games—it was a combination of university and professional training school for well-off citizens. Neos were newbie citizens who often had internship-like jobs in city administration or politics. The land described in the lease was given to the Neos by a wealthy citizen of Teos, in a gift that was likely half-generosity, half-tax writeoff. Because the land contained a shrine, it was classified as a “holy” place that couldn’t be taxed. Along with the land, the donor gave the Neos all the property on it, including several slaves.
Use Of Premises Clauses
Beyond enshrining the brutal custom of slavery, the lease agreement also describes a tax-deductible donation of property and numerous clauses concerning punishments if the property was misused. From the Hurriyet Daily News:
In order to meet the expenses of this land and to get income, the Neos rented the land. The inscription tells us who owned the land in the past and what it includes. It also mentions a holy altar. The Neos express in the agreement that they want to use this holy place three days a year. In this period, the state collected tax from lands. But since the land was defined ‘holy,’ it was exempted from tax. It is understood that the land was rented at an auction and the name of the renter is written on the inscription,” [Archeology professor Mustafa] Adak said.
Almost half of the inscription is filled with punishment forms. If the renter gives damage to the land, does not pay the annual rent or does not repair the buildings, he will be punished. The [property-owning] Neos also vow to inspect the land every year,” said the Akdeniz University professor.
“There are two particularly interesting legal terms used in the inscription, which large dictionaries have not up to now included. Ancient writers and legal documents should be examined in order to understand these words mean,” Adak said.
As I’ve written here before, the ancient world’s commercial property business was a fascinating and sometimes depressing thing. So the next time you’re convinced the commercial lease on your desk is difficult to understand as well as being hard to break, think of the landlords of Teos, their human property and their stone lease. Today’s tenant has it relatively easy under that comparison.
Photo credit: Ars Technica
It’s an old argument, and it goes something like this: the newest federal regulations on commercial real estate lending standards in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis are too onerous for US banks to adapt to. Sarbanes-Oxley and Dodd-Frank regulatory packages taken together, the line of thinking goes, are strangling US banking and threatening efficient capital allocation by introducing piles of red tape. Too many commercial deals slow down and die waiting for capital, and it’s all thanks to these regulations, say many.
An equally old argument is its opposite: that the culture of banking, from too-big-to-fail banks down to community banks, is terrible at self-regulation. That systemic risk in lending and repackaging is a real thing that came astonishingly close to burning down the world eight years ago. That evidence is plentiful for this side — from Wells Fargo’s recent sham-account fraud and criminality to the total fines levied on big banks breaking the $200B mark.
No matter what side you find yourself on, a fact remains: to get commercial real estate deals financed, an increasing number of players are looking beyond the regulatory footprint of the US. The winners this are foreign lenders, who are enjoying eye-popping growth over the past six years of commercial mortgage lending.
Foreign Lenders Growth in CRE Outstrips CRE Growth Rates US-Chartered Banks
The Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States includes a subsection called “L.220 Commercial Mortgages”. And on line 13 of the table that illustrates that since 2010, foreign lenders have increased their amount of money lent to commercial mortgages by a little over 80%. Second quarter 2016 has this number at $55.8 billion.
Meanwhile, US-chartered institutions increased their business in commercial mortgages by 15% on a portfolio of over $1.4 trillion. Note the two lines highlighted next to each other in the table above (click to expand).
So while the US banks lead foreign lenders by more than 30-1, the steepest commercial mortgage business growth volume by far is non-US lenders.
The Why And The What
While there’s no Fed data that puts the cause of the sharply increased foreign lending at the feet of recent regulatory attempts, that won’t stop market-ideologues from claiming that regulation is the reason.
But when they do, we have to remember that on a volume basis, under current regulation, the growth increase alone in commercial mortgage lending by US banks absolutely dwarfs the entire total foreign lending commercial mortgage market by almost 4-1.
So recent regulation is by no means fatal to commercial mortgage lending in the US. Even if we assume regulation explains the sharp rise in foreign lending, the period in question has merely eroded the huge lead US lenders have, by moving the ratio of foreign commercial mortgage lending vs US commercial mortgage lending from its 2010 level near 50-1 favoring US lenders vs. a 30-1 ratio today.
When capital markets change, it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. But rushes to judgement about cause and effect just aren’t in the Fed’s own numbers about commercial mortgage lending.Related articles
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As long as the Federal Reserve continues to hold down the cost of borrowed capital, the market to trade in old financing for better terms on commercial property remains hot. Nationally, here are ten notable refinance deals in commercial real estate. Some went to fixed-rate, some went to floating-rate, but all went to the closi one more time.
- $46M For 763-unit co-op in upstate New York (REBuisness Online, Oct. 8): Details on a new loan funding current and future capital improvements for this cooperatively owned apartment complex.
- Two properties go through defeasance nullifying two CMBS loans (Commercial Property Executive, Oct 8): One consultant walks two properties through loan nullification, coinciding in one case with a sale and a refinance in the other.
- 10-year $32M loan for New Haven apartment building (REBusiness Online, Oct 6): Fannie Mae near-stabilization program participant refinances 137-unit building.
- Pair of suburban DC office properties obtain funding for lease-up – (Commercial Property Executive, Sept. 30): One floating-rate loan and one fixed-rate for two same-class Arlington office properties.
- Toys R Us looks to raise half a billion refi in CMBS market -(NREI Wire, Sept 28): Echoing past moves on the brand’s UK portfolio, toy store chain seeks refinancing of its 875 stores in the US.
- $3M refi for Staten Island office – (REBusinessOnline Sept 28): NorthMarq arranges a ten-tear term with 25-year amortization schedule.
- 1140 19th St. Washington DC – (Commercialobserver.com, Sept 27): $24 million refi for Class A DC office building features 10-year fixed rate.
- Blackstone borrows $99M for 44 Wall Street – (CommercialObserver, Sept 26): A complex debt structure includes project funds, building funds and $67.5 refinance.
- Ohio multifamily properties snag Fannie loans – (REBusinessOnline, Sept 21): One property in Columbus and one in Willoughby benefit from $18.8M in refinance by Hunt Mortgage Group.
- 102-unit senior housing facility near San Diego refinances – (REBusinessOnline, Sept. 15): CBRE Capital Markets Debt & Structured Finance team refinances The Pointe at Lantern Crest in suburban San Diego.
Determining the parking ratio for a commercial property project isn’t complex arithmetic. The number of parking spaces per 1,000 square feet of gross rentable space is the parking ratio. Sometimes a property’s type calls for a minimum number of spaces, sometimes local zoning regulations call for a minimum. But these minimums are getting a second look in the near future as driving becomes less popular and cities stress walkable development.
A University of California study on parking in 2011 found that the US sports over 800 million parking spaces, taking up 25,000 square miles of land, or about the equivalent of the entire land area of West Virginia — or four New Jerseys.
With a commitment like that, it’s a fact that a huge amount of value is locked up in parking lots. And now, cities across the US and the world are rethinking the level of commitment to parking.
The Guardian’s recent piece “Lots to lose: how cities around the world are eliminating car parks” takes a drive around the issue, looking for a future less committed to yellow painted lines on asphalt and more committed to green — both the sustainable and the folding kind.
As cities across the world begin to prioritise walkable urban development and the type of city living that does not require a car for every trip, city officials are beginning to move away from blanket policies of providing abundant parking. Many are adjusting zoning rules that require certain minimum amounts of parking for specific types of development. Others are tweaking prices to discourage driving as a default when other options are available. Some are even actively preventing new parking spaces from being built.
To better understand how much parking they have and how much they can afford to lose, transportation officials in San Francisco in 2010 released the results of what’s believed to be the first citywide census of parking spaces. They counted every publicly accessible parking space in the city, including lots, garages, and free and metered street parking. They found that the city had441,541 spaces, and more than half of them are free, on-street spaces.
Knowing the parking inventory has made it easier for the city to pursue public space improvements such as adding bike lanes or parklets, using the data to quell inevitable neighbourhood concerns about parking loss. “We can show that removing 20 spaces can just equate to removing 0.1% of the parking spaces within walking distance of a location,” says Steph Nelson of the SFMTA.
The data helps planners to understand when new developments actually need to provide parking spaces and when the available inventory is sufficient. More often, the data shows that the city can’t build its way out of a parking shortage – whether it’s perceived or real – and that the answers lie in alternative transportation options.
Getting Demand Right
Using dynamic pricing, San Francisco managed to reduce the demand for parking by nearly half. But sometimes demand falls without changing pricing, as in Philadelphia:
Since 1990, the city of Philadelphia has conducted an inventory of parking every five years in the downtown Center City neighbourhood, counting publicly accessible parking spaces and analysing occupancy rates in facilities with 30 or more spaces. Because of plentiful transit options, a walkable environment and a high downtown residential population, Philadelphia is finding that it needs less parking. Between 2010 and 2015, the amount of off-street parking around downtown shrank by about 3,000 spaces, a 7% reduction. Most of that is tied to the replacement of surface lots with new development, according to Mason Austin, a planner at the Philadelphia City Planning Commission and co-author of the most recent parking inventory.
What becomes plain as more cities line up to improve infrastructure and walkability, or use technology to re-jigger pricing as demand fluctuates: parking as we’ve known it — and priced it — is nearing the end of its era. Fixed minimums or quotas may lag behind the new reality, but developers and property owners will need to stay vigilant as old, reliable parking ratios no longer find space in reality.
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Major metropolitan areas are making an effort to distance themselves from the traditional food supply chain. Cities, dreaming of achieving food independence from the farms that surround them, are increasingly turning to vertical farming projects that grow food in urban settings. Thanks to giant advances in green engineering and sustainable agricultural technologies, these vertical farms are gaining industrial scale efficiency.
Marking this progress is news that Target stores will debut vertical farms inside some of their stores this spring. According to Business Insider, the big box retailer will add vertical farms to some of its stores this spring. Customers will be able to pick their own leafy greens — or have store staff take on the task. From the piece in Business Insider:
In January, Target launched the Food + Future CoLab, a collaboration with design firm Ideo and the MIT Media Lab. One area of the team’s research focuses on vertical farming, and Greg Shewmaker, one of Target’s entrepreneurs-in-residence at the CoLab, says they are planning to test the technology in a few Target stores to see how involved customers actually want to be with their food.
“The idea is that by next spring, we’ll have in-store growing environments,” he says.
During the in-store trials, people could potentially harvest their own produce from the vertical farms, or just watch as staff members pick greens and veggies to stock on the shelves.
Most vertical farms grow leafy greens, but the CoLab researchers are trying to figure out how to cultivate other crops as well.
“Because it’s MIT, they have access to some of these seed banks around the world,” Shewmaker says, “so we’re playing with ancient varietals of different things, like tomatoes that haven’t been grown in over a century, different kinds of peppers, things like that, just to see if it’s possible.”
Space And Indoor Agriculture
Does your property portfolio include a potential vertical farm? For ideas on vertical farming space configurations, these concept videos from architects help to visualize indoor farming on a profitable scale. To overcome the big spread between cost of land in urban vs. rural areas, most vertical farming has to emphasize the vertical and get more yield per ground square foot than traditional dirt. In the case of a big box or supermarket devoting a portion of its footprint to vertical farming, that requirement might not apply, suggesting there’s a market developing for modular indoor farming operations that insert smoothly into traditional food retailing floor plans. If you’re aware of developments in this area, leave a comment and let’s both keep an eye on this technology.
Commercial development without skilled construction workers is a recipe for no development whatsoever. Yet the country’s educational system appears to be failing the construction industry – along with commercial real estate.
The system seems content to allow millions of students at for-profit colleges to be simply fleeced and abandoned, no more employable than they were before going into debt for their education. This is the for-profit education industry’s choice: a grab for the short-term, subsidized buck over the long-term benefit to the student and to the country. Rather than orient itself toward trade education that actually meets the demands of the wider economy, the secondary educational system’s choice to turn away from the trades appears to have placed it on a direct collision course with the needs of the commercial development industry. Those needs are near all-time highs: the latest employment forecasts from the US Department of Labor say that the national need for these workers ranks higher than the needs for workers in all other categories save one (heath care).
Programs To Patch The Gap
Correcting the course isn’t going to be automatic, or even easy. Construction mogul Bill Gilbane’s piece in Commercial Observer highlights the gap between industry needs and trade education by talking up investing in programs that address high school students in the funnel for careers in construction and design. Gilbane sings the praises of the Ace Mentor Program, an afterschool program that brings high schoolers into careers in architecture, construction management, engineering and other disciplines.
Beyond programs like Ace, development and real estate firms have opportunities to address the issue on their own. As Gilbane writes about his company’s internal efforts:
But we must still do more to bring young people onboard and keep them long term. In order to meet future demand, we need to develop the pool of workers in our industry now. Developing the skills of younger professionals helps create our leaders of the future.
That is why we launched a two-year Management Candidate Acceleration Program (MCAP). The MCAP program allows younger employees to gain first-hand experience in each department at Gilbane Building Company and once they’ve completed the program, participants are prepared to step up into those roles full time—and their paths often lead to project or executive management.
This is essential to ensuring current young professionals become our next generation of leaders. It also supports our long-term employees on a path to continuous improvement. By providing technical and educational programs, we help our staff learn new skills to support their current roles and develop their leadership abilities.
These educational and mentoring models — both external and internal — are worth looking at, throughout the commercial real estate and construction industries as the economy surges forward. Let’s not let “business as usual” today serve to shut down huge business and employment opportunities in the future.Related articles
When it’s time for a business to investigate new locations for itself, decision-makers have a big job. Commercial real estate brokers and their tenant clients need to tour locations and experience spaces in ways big and small. Putting together tour books — the right mix of location information and space experience — is a major challenge. Yesterday, a new software tool arrived that smooths out and radically speeds up the process of building, distributing and collaborating on space tour books. Introducing Spaceful by Xceligent.
What used to take hours now takes minutes with Spaceful. “The space-tour is a critical step on a broker’s path to closing a deal,” said Doug Curry, Xceligent CEO. “So, we created a tool that makes that process fast and hassle-free. Brokers can now assemble digital tour books in minutes – not hours – and edit or update them in real time based on feedback from colleagues and clients,” Curry said.
Spaceful delivers dynamic tour books that contain easy-to-view, detailed information on spaces and buildings, area information including notable companies nearby, retailers, restaurants, and public transportation options.
Assemble Tours Easily
If plans change, reordering tour stops is a snap – real time map updates reflect property information contained in past tour books, third-party data providers. Include information about notable neighbors and area amenities with ease.
Send Tour Books To Clients The Way They Want Them
Click to browse a sample tour book — no more paper! Spaceful’s sharp digital interface presents the books to clients’ smart phones, pads or computers – send out links to participants in a snap.
Collaborate Easily On Tour Books
Spaceful allows you to share work-in-progress tour books with collaborators. Leverage your entire team’s knowledge of the area and bring it to bear at exactly the right time and place.
Try Spaceful For Free
A major problem with using statistics is that today it’s much easier to count things than it is to decide exactly what to count, or exactly why to count. The answers we obtain when analyzing economic and commercial real estate data may reflect the real world, but there’s no guarantee that a set of questions are the right ones. In data science or statistical analysis, the quality of an answer entirely depends on the quality of the design of the question asked.
The way they describe this problem in the computer science world is: garbage in, garbage out. And out it comes indeed: when you ask the wrong question (or a question lacking in the right detail) the answers you get will come pouring out just as plentifully and convincingly as when you ask the right question.
The Retail Closures Question
As e-commerce continues to radically reshape the retail ecosystem, disrupting decades of assumptions about physical space, parking and real estate value, it’s perfectly reasonable to notice that a growing number of once-venerable retailing brands have closed, or are threatening to close, or are pointedly denying they will close.
In such a world, it’s reasonable to wonder what effect all this change is having on retail rents generally. That’s a good general question to put to statistical analysis, but incomplete in its basic form — you have to define exactly what retail rents are, and you have to decide what makes a good relationship between closures and those rents.
This is what Barbara Byrne Denham, an economist in the research department of Reis, Inc. has done. Her best effort to keep garbage out was to get a good handle on what rents were in metros across the country. She included data on rent growth, ranking metro areas by their growth in rent rates, such data coming from within her Reis data warehouse. From her piece “Impact Of Large Chain Closures On Retail Rents” published last week in NREI:
Few, if any, have analyzed the impact of these store closures on real estate statistics. Having property- level retail real estate data, analysts at Reis have been tracking store closures for the larger, more high-profile brands across the country. In short, the Reis database includes 280 store closures in 59 of the 80 primary retail metros that Reis tracks, totaling 12.8 million sq. ft. of closed stores across the United States. The major brands include Wal-mart, Kohl’s, Sports Authority, Pathmark, Superfresh, A&P, Waldbaums, Haggen and Kmart. Many of these closures were concentrated in a handful of metro areas, including Chicago, Central New Jersey, Northern New Jersey, Philadelphia, Long Island, San Diego and Los Angeles—all of which had more than 400,000 sq. ft. of store closures from 2015 through July of this year.
The report looks at the percentage of inventory that store closures account for and the change in rent growth rates by metro. The purpose of this analysis is to see if and how these store closures have affected rent growth rates. In short, the closures may have impacted these metros, but there is no overall conclusion that can be drawn from the data. It should be noted that this detailed data does not include details on whether or not the store spaces have been re-leased to other users. Some may have been in the interim.
The conclusions are carefully drawn in Denham’s work, as she meticulously spells out the limitations of the analysis, highlighting where and how it could differ from the real world. It’s not glamorous or provocative to be complete and correct about what a study has found, nor to be scrupulously above board concerning the work’s assumptions. The business world wants plain and actionable insights, validated by “crunching the numbers”. This isn’t that. Denham’s study suggests that the impact of sizeable retail closures on rent growth was one of many factors that contributed to declines in rent growth, and perhaps not even the strongest factor.
The study is a helpful look into a use of statistics to ask the right questions, to avoid garbage-in-garbage-out and to be scrupulous in never confusing correlation (stuff that happens nearby something else happening) with causation (stuff that happens because something else is happening). In an age marked by oceans of “big data” and thousands of software tools to work through it, it’s of growing importance that we all focus on the quality of the questions before we accept the significance of the answers.
Kmart, granddaddy of the big box retail format, addressed fears yesterday that the brand’s recent struggles are fatal. Kmart CEO Eddie Lampert took to the pulpit to deny “recent reports” that the chain was near the end, a matter of great importance to hundreds of Kmart-anchored shopping centers across the US.
Reports have persisted over 2016 that the chain was in a free-fall, but Lampert took issue with the fears in a statement posted at Kmart parent Sears Holdings:
I also wanted to comment on the frequent false and exaggerated claims surrounding our Kmart business. Recent reports have suggested that Kmart will cease its operations. I can tell you that there are no plans and there have never been any plans to close the Kmart format. In fact, we’ve been working hard to make Kmart a more fun, engaging place to shop, powered by our integrated retail innovations and Shop Your Way. To report or suggest otherwise is irresponsible and is likely intended to do harm to our company to the benefit of those who seek to gain advantage from posting these inaccurate reports.
There are a few things that are very important for you to keep in mind. First, Kmart continues to operate over 700 stores. Second, a significant number of these stores are profitable and have been profitable for many years. Third, we have been clear that we are intent on improving the performance of our unprofitable stores and, if we cannot, we will close them. Actions to improve our store productivity, including reducing inventory stored in the stockrooms, are designed to make our stores easier to operate and to eliminate unproductive inventory and processes. Decisions to close stores are never easy, but we recognize that the way people are shopping is changing significantly. This is why we have made major investments in our online and mobile platforms and this is why our focus on serving members through Shop Your Way is so important.
Uber Partnership Touted
In what could become, if proven successful, a game-changer for shopping center parking space calculation formulas, the Shop Your Way customer-convenience program touted by Lampert leverages both Kmart and Sears brands and includes an innovative partnership with ride-sharing powerhouse Uber. Points and reward programs are used to tie ride-sharers and Uber drivers to the Kmart brand at the same time they shop among Kmart and Sears’s shelves.
Will the new customer-convenience programs rescue these troubled, venerable retail brands? Can Kmart and Sears innovate their way into the future? Can a recipe of hundreds of millions in loans from its CEO plus new ideas rescue Kmart? Answers to these questions are fast approaching, anticipated by landlords, managers and brokers from coast to coast.
An article in the Japan Times reports that the familiar convenience store brand 7-11 is on track to become a lot more familiar and convenient. The chain currently operates 8,500 stores in the United States, but its Japan-based parent company has announced it plans to bump that number to 20,000.
The 11,500 new stores are part of an ambitious plan to increase not just the real estate footprint but the average daily sale at the stores:
Seven-Eleven Japan Co. expects to open thousands of new stores in the U.S., increasing its current tally of 8,500 to 20,000, President Kazuki Furuya said.
The unit of Japanese retail giant Seven & I Holdings took full control of 7-Eleven Inc. of the United States in 2005.
The U.S. unit is now prepared to expand its network after introducing Japanese-style product development and services through personnel exchanges with Seven-Eleven Japan, Furuya said.
He said whereas U.S. customers tended in the past to be lower-income people, increasing numbers of the middle-class are now using the outlets because the quality of goods has improved.
The U.S. unit believes it can boost its average daily sales per shop to between ¥800,000 [$7,969.00] and ¥900,000 [$8,965.00] from some ¥500,000 [$4,981.00] at present, he said.
US Real Estate Department
Commercial property professionals with ideas on how to facilitate the chain’s new goals can contact 7-11’s Real Estate department at its corporate website, which includes a form to submit property for consideration and a downloadable Development Market Map to highlight areas of priority to the corporation. Other contact can be made with the details below:
Real Estate Department
P.O. Box 711
Dallas, TX 75221-0711
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)Related articles
At its September meeting yesterday, the Federal Reserve Board noted one way and voted another. The Fed voted 7-3 to leave its Federal Funds interest rate untouched at its low level, suggesting the commercial real estate national markets will not have to worry about escalating cost of capital — at least for now.
In a press release following the vote, the Fed cited a strengthening labor market plus a picking up of economic activity in the second half of the year as a justification for the vote. Inflation fears were addressed by noting the level remains under the Board’s long-run goal of 2%.
The Federal Funds Rate’s target was allowed to stand between 1/4 and 1/2 of 1%, despite the “case for a [rate] increase [strengthening]”:
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
Prime Rates Primed To Stay Put
The Federal Funds rate is deeply tied to the prime rates each commercial bank offers to its least risky borrowers, prime rates tracking more or less consistently at 3 percentage points above the Federal Funds rate. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where the issue of interest rates will be again considered is scheduled for November 2.